Monday, July 1, 2002

Page A12

When Hong Kong reverted to Chinese rule five years ago today, many predicted that freedom of speech would be a principal casualty. Beijing's much-trumpeted "one country, two systems" mantra would prove to be no more than camouflage for imposing the same brand of authoritarianism that stifles dissent on the mainland, the skeptics said. Regrettably, bit by bit, they may have been entirely right.

The newest evidence is seen in Hong Kong's decision last week to bar -- again -- leading Chinese activist Harry Wu from the territory. A U.S. citizen and an outspoken critic of China's atrocious human-rights record, Mr. Wu was refused a visa that would have allowed him to address a seminar marking the anniversary of Britain's departure from its long-time colony. Other undesired political and religious activists have been arrested, harassed or excluded in recent months, and the island's chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, who was not required to stand for election once he had received Beijing's endorsement, has tightened the laws that regulate political demonstrations. Next on the horizon is new anti-subversion legislation.

One target in this incremental crackdown is the Falun Gong spiritual movement -- even though it remains technically legal in Hong Kong. Sixteen Falun Gong practitioners, including four Swiss nationals, are currently on trial on charges of causing a public disturbance and, last week, an elderly U.S.-based member of the group was turned back from the Hong Kong airport and bundled on to a return flight wrapped in a tarpaulin.

Mr. Tung, meanwhile, has announced the territory's biggest administrative shakeup since he took charge, proclaiming that his new lineup of handpicked ministers signaled "a new era of open, enlightened and progressive government." If only. Unchanged, and unlikely to change, is the fact that only 24 members of Hong Kong's 60-seat Legislative Council are directly elected, with the rest chosen by a committee that reports to Beijing. The system works well and should be left intact, Chinese Vice-Premier Qian Qichen told the South China Morning Post recently.

The same cannot be said of Hong Kong's economy. Unemployment is running at 7.5 per cent, a record high, accompanied by deflation that has now lasted almost four years. Struggling with a huge budget deficit, authorities are seeking to cut the pay of the territory's 200,000 civil servants, whose mood is rebellious.

The immediate test of Hong Kong's stability, however, will occur today, with several large anti-Tung protests called to mark the anniversary. Information Minister Stephen Lam has assured residents that law and order will be maintained and that police "will monitor the situation closely." Mr. Lam undoubtedly means what he says.

Where to from here? The prognosis does not look good. Former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher is unlikely to acknowledge it, after her rosy forecasts at the time of the handover, but "one country, one system" looks to be the formula that best defines Hong Kong's future.

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